Political Forecaster Moves Nebraska Senate Race in Osborn's Direction
by John Gage
(Photo credit Matt Johnson)
OMAHA — A leading political forecaster shifted the Nebraska Senate race in Dan Osborn’s direction as part of a larger trend in Republican-held seats trending towards Democratic and progressive challengers. The Cook Political Report (CPR) changed Nebraska from being a “Solid Republican” seat to a “Likely Republican” seat as part of a shift in four Senate races away from Republicans in the 2026 cycle.
“One seat moves from Solid Republican to the periphery of the battleground map into the Likely Republican column: Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is back again, this time challenging wealthy Sen. Pete Ricketts,” CPR editor Jessica Taylor said Monday in the report about the shifts in Senate races nationwide.
In addition to the Nebraska shift, the report moved the North Carolina and Georgia Senate seats from a “Toss Up” to a “Lean Democratic” and the Ohio seat from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up.”
The report noted President Donald Trump’s continued lagging approval ratings as a major factor in Senate seats trending away from Republican control. CPR noted that it’s possible the trend could either reverse or get worse for the GOP.
“It’s possible things could rebound for his party or that they could find a rallying cry to get his base out in November,” the report said. “National Republicans believe the White House is at a nadir and can only go up; there’s also a distinct possibility that the president’s standing could still get worse or remain at the current baseline.”
A spokesperson for Pete Ricketts’ Senate campaign responded to the rating shift by saying that Osborn has attempted to “paint” himself as an Independent but would not succeed. “Just like in 2024, Nebraskans won’t be fooled,” the spokesperson said.
In 2024, Osborn lost to Senator Deb Fischer 53-47 in a race that surprised political observers across the country for how closely fought it was at the end. Fischer had previously beaten then-Lincoln City Councilwoman Jane Raybould 58-39 in her 2018 reelection campaign.
Osborn responded to the news Monday saying, “the momentum on the ground is real.”
John Gage is the executive editor of The Plains Sentinel.
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The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter is filled with assumptions of which they keep adjusting. It is a good aid in determining what campaigns need to do better but it can be misleading. Right now, Dan Osborn has not submitted petitions to be on the ballot, so what is CPR looking at?