5 Must Watch Races On Primary Election Night
by John Gage
(Picture courtesy of the Nebraska Secretary of State)
Nebraska’s primary election day is almost here, with voters turning out on May 12 to cast their votes. As the voters decide who they want to advance to the general election, here are 5 key races for political observers to pay attention to on Tuesday evening.
Blue Dot Battle
A hard-fought, sometimes bitter, Democratic primary for the second congressional district is drawing to a close. Five Democrats face off to see who will take on Brinker Harding, the lone GOP candidate, in the general election.
Prediction markets have made State Sen. John Cavanaugh the favorite again after nonprofit leader Denise Powell briefly appeared to be in the driver’s seat following an onslaught of negative PAC ads targeting Cavanaugh.
Cavanaugh has hit back at Powell in recent weeks with his own ads calling her “Dark Money Denise” over the millions of dollars in outside spending that have gone to support her campaign. Democrats will decide Tuesday if they want Cavanaugh, who comes from a longtime Omaha political family, or Powell, who is favored by many Democratic leaders outside of the state, to try to take back the Blue Dot from Republicans.
The primary race remains a true toss-up and will be the most closely watched race in Nebraska, but also by lots of politicos across the country as CD-2 remains one of the few battleground congressional seats in the nation.
Secretary of State
The Secretary of State race is the only competitive GOP statewide primary this cycle, with incumbent Bob Evnen facing off against challenger Scott Petersen. The race has become a litmus test for Republican feelings about election integrity in the state, with Petersen accusing Evnen of not doing enough to secure the state’s voting systems.
The race has gotten heated in recent weeks, with Evnen supporters claiming Petersen supporters have been promoting antisemitism. Evnen is backed by many of the GOP’s current elected officials, including Governor Jim Pillen and Congressman Don Bacon.
GOP political insiders are split on whether the race will be competitive, with some saying Evnen should win handily, and others saying it could be a toss-up. Evnen has out-raised Petersen 3-1 this cycle, according to filings from the Nebraska Accountability and Disclosure Commission.
In 2022, Evnen faced two GOP challengers, Robert Borer and Rex Schroder, who both ran on election integrity platforms. Evnen won with a plurality of the vote, 44%, while his opponents split the remaining 56%.
Senate Primaries:
Senator Pete Ricketts is not facing a serious primary challenge, and Independent Dan Osborn is not on the primary ballot, but the Democratic Senate primary will be a must-watch with a race that has been defined by accusations of a “plant” candidate.
William Forbes will be going against Cindy Burbank. Forbes has been accused by Osborn and the Democratic Party of being a “plant,” with critics pointing to his conservative-leaning politics as a pastor in western Nebraska and his connection to Republicans. Forbes denies the charges and says he has been a lifelong Democrat.
In the Legal Marijuana NOW primary, another candidate, Mike Marvin, has been accused of being a “plant” put in by the Osborn campaign to try to clear the party from the ballot to give Osborn a better shot in the general. Marvin has called the accusations “slanderous.”
Which candidates move on from both parties could determine how many votes get siphoned away from Osborn’s Independent bid in the general election.
Omaha Legislative Swing Districts
Whether Republicans keep control of their supermajority in the Legislature is, in all likelihood, going to come down to a handful of Omaha swing districts. Tuesday night will set up a couple of high-stakes general election races by determining which Republican and Democratic challengers face off in November.
In LD 12, Republican State Sen. Merv Riepe is running for reelection against 3 Democrats. Only 2 Democratic names will appear on the ballot as the third, Robin Richards, failed to pay her filing fee after a check bounced. Despite this setback, Richards is running write-in campaign, and so far she’s raised more money than either of her fellow Democratic candidates.
The general election is set to be a competitive battleground race with Riepe representing a district that voted for Kamala Harris last cycle by a couple of points.
In LD 14, two Republicans and a Democratic candidate are battling for the Papillion legislative seat. Republicans Bill Bowes and Jay Jackson have had multiple PACs attack each other as its likely only one of the Republican candidates will move on to face Democrat SuAnn Witt.
This seat leans Republican in a general election, but Witt has outraised both Bowes and Jackson this year.
In LD 18 which covers Bennington and other parts of suburban Omaha, two Republicans, Derrick Schwartz and Taylor Royal, are facing off against each other and a Democrat, Jess Goldoni. The race has heated up in recent weeks with the Schwartz campaign issuing a cease and desist letter against Royal’s campaign over mailers.
With only Royal or Schwartz likely to advance to the general, this will become another key race for Republican and Democrats looking to keep or break the GOP supermajority in November.
CD-1 Democratic Primary
Most eyes will be on the second congressional district, but the first congressional district has also featured a competitive Democratic primary between Chris Backemeyer and Eric Moyer. Backemeyer has out-raised Moyer 6-1, but Moyer has received some direct support from the Nebraska Democratic Party.
Whoever faces incumbent Congressman Mike Flood in the general election will have a tough matchup, but if the national environment for Republicans continues to worsen, the race could become competitive.
Bonus Watch: What Will Turnout Be?
With no competitive gubernatorial, Senate, or congressional primaries, Republican turnout across the state will likely be low; the question is how low. Democrats, especially in Omaha, will have reasons to turnout, and will almost certainly be comparatively higher than Republican turnout given the stakes and national environment.
John Gage is the executive editor of The Plains Sentinel.